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The2025 Oscarnominations have been announced, revealing the 10 Best Picture nominees.
These ten movies all hope to win the2025 Oscars Best Picture category.
That dramatically impacts the probability of various titles winning.
However, every recognized title does not have the same opportunity to win.
In any case, a tier ranking of the Oscars 2025 Best Picture nominees can be made.
We’re splitting the ten nominees into five categories.
Just Happy To Be Nominated are films unlikely to win that get more recognition through a nomination.
Genre Movies Hoping For An Oscar Breakthrough are distant contenders from genres the Oscars typically do not award.
The Darkhorse Contender is a film with several nominations and a case to win.
Serious Contenders are films with 8+ nominations and a path to win.
Then, The Favorites are the movies most likely to win.
The latter is Brazil’s entry for Best International Feature Film.
Custom Image by Ana Nieves
The Best Picture nominations forNickel BoysandI’m Still Hereare warranted.
It’s in a much better spot to win Best International Feature or Best Actress than Best Picture.
The real win forNickel BoysandI’m Still Hereis the exposure the nominations bring.
Sci-fi movies and franchise sequels do not generally fare well, which hurtsDune: Part Two.
Both movies hope to be exceptions to the nearly 100-year history of the Oscars.
Denis Villeneuve once again missed out on a Best Director nomination.
The sequel even missed Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which were two categories the originalDunegot recognized for.
The big difference isDune 2lacks momentum in any major categories to winand support a Best Picture trophy.
As forThe Substance, the odds are also still stacked against it to win the big prize.
That does not seem plausible right now.
And yet,Wickedabsolutely qualifies as a dark horse contender to win Best Picture.
The Broadway musical adaptation cemented its status as a major Oscar contender during the nominations.Wickedgot 10 Oscar nominationsoverall.
That’s partially howChicagobecame the last musical to win Best Picture.
It would really help ifAriana Grande could win Best Supporting Actress.
If voters want a feel-good movie to win, that could beWicked.
But it still does not seem to be something that’s really expected or likely.
All the previous films would be surprising winners to various degrees.
But that’s not the case forConclave,The Brutalist, andA Complete Unknown.
Conversely, James Mangold’s nomination bolstersA Complete Unknown.
IfTimothee Chalamet does win Best Actor, it could help push the Bob Dylan biopic over the top.
However, it did not miss any major category it was predicted for.
Emilia Perez’s status is a bit different.
The movie has this negative momentum working against it, as well as the mythical Netflix bias.
There is a very real possibility thatEmilia Perezwill be Netflix’s first Best Picture-winning movie.
That may mean we’re heading for anAnoravsEmilia Perezshowdown to determine who will win Best Picture at the2025 Oscars.
