Now that the 2025 Oscar nominations are confirmed in every category, the Best Picture lineup is locked in.
Many of these films were expected to have a spot in the lineup thanks to precursor wins and nominations.
But as the final ceremony approaches and moreOscars controversiesmount, only one can be the predicted winner.
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The strategy worked asRaMell Ross and Joseyln Barnes' script got a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.
This marks its only other nomination outside of Best Picture.
The 10 Best Picture nominees for the 2025 Oscars are now confirmed.
Here’s each movie ranked in tiers based on their possibility of winning.
It evenwon Best Picture with the National Society of Critics.
Those two films areWingsandGrand Hotel, and they both came out nearly 100 years ago.
The best it could do is win Adapted Screenplay.
The movie earned three Oscar nominations as a result.
It got a Golden Lion nomination, which is the festival’s highest prize.
Fernanda Torres' Golden Globes win may have helped push it over the top to get into Best Picture.
The odds are low thatI’m Still Herewill win Best Picture.
Villeneuve’s original movie received a nomination in 2022, but it did not win.
His sci-fi filmArrivalalso got a Best Picture nomination.
Dune 2had good reason to believe that it would be in the Best Picture mix.
It had a Best Motion Picture - Drama nomination from the Golden Globes, which it lost.
The sequel may ultimately win a few below-the-line categories, but that’s it.
There’s no reasonable expectation to predict it as the Best Picture winner.
The lower odds forDune 2to win Best Picture are not a mark against the film’s quality.
It was one of thebest movies of 2024, and this nomination reflects that.
That’s a knock againstDune 2.
And that might be a mistake asDune 3may prove to be a less awards-friendly installment.
Several precursors were pointing toThe Substanceearning a nomination here.
Only one, 1991’sThe Silence of the Lambs, went on to win.
Insensitive tweets from star Karla Sofia Gascon resurfaced online and sparked new controversy around the film.
It’s a somewhat surprising turn for a movie that already performed well before the Oscars ceremony.
It still had a chance to win at the PGA Awards, but it lost toAnora.
Since it lost at SAG, there is no real way to validate pickingWickedat the Oscars.
The odds are stacked againstWickedwinning Best Pictureright now.
Whether that’s actually what happens is something to keep an eye on for the next year.
That’s clearly happened again withA Complete Unknown’s eight nominations, giving it a higher tally than expected.
It was recognized at Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, PGA, and SAG.
However, it didn’t take home the top prize at any of those precursors.
It could then perform pretty well on the preferential ballot.
3The Brutalist
The Brutalisthas a solid resume to win Best Picture, making it a legitimate contender.
It’salready won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama.
But it also lost at Critics Choice and BAFTA.
It’s unclear if that was accomplished.
The drama looks to be in a good position to possibly win Best Picture.
It’s received a huge boost after winning at BAFTA and SAG.
That’s a big deal considering only six films have won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.
Furthermore,Focus Features has never won the Best Picture Oscardespite 12 previous nominations.
This would meanConclavewould need to make history to make it win the category.
Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising thatthe movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or.
The studio has givenAnoraa strong campaign throughout the awards season, culminating in it earning six Oscar nominations.
All theawardsAnorahas wonspeak for itself.
It’s really a coin flip betweenAnoraandConclavebetween who will win the top prize.
My final prediction is thatAnorawill win Best Picture at theOscars 2025.
