This year, theOscars 2025 Best Picture nominated moviesare responsible for only three of the Best Actor nominees.

Now, he’s in a position where he could do the same withThe Apprentice.

Stan’s portrayal of the now-re-elected President could’ve worked in his favor in a different year.

An Oscar statue with Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) & Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Custom Image by Ana Nieves

Ultimately, there’s no reasonable case to be made for Stan to win Best Actor.

He repeatedly missed out on opportunities to win for this performance and strengthen his position.

While he won the Golden Globe forA Different Man, that’s not the performance the Oscars recognized.

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Stan has lost at BAFTA, Spirit Awards, and now SAG.

Those nominations are worth celebrating if you’re Sebastian Stan after Hollywood distanced itself fromThe Apprentice.

His Oscar nomination is a huge accomplishment in that regard.

The Oscars | Academy Awards

There’s no shot that he’s winning the Best Actor Oscar this year.

He had a breakthrough role as far as the Oscars are concerned in 2023 withRustin.

While the film’s rollout could be questioned, the strategy ultimately worked.

Domingo is an Oscar nominee for Best Actor in back-to-back years.

The unfortunate news for Domingo is that the early success he had in awards season has evaporated.

He notablywon the Gotham Awards' Best Actor, giving him his first major win of the season.

That was thought to be a victory that could catapult him to winning an Oscar.

Fiennes' performance is one of the highlights ofConclavefor just about everyone who sees it.

His work has resonated with Academy voters and delivered a Best Actor Oscar nomination.

He was even our predicted winner in the category early on in the race.

His first Oscar nomination came in 1994 forSchindler’s Listin Best Supporting Actor.

He followed that up with a Best Actor nomination three years later forThe English Patient.

The Oscars could change that if he managed to win forConclave- but that will not happen at this stage.

His lacking performance at precursors does not inspire confidence he can win.

His role inThe Brutalisthas put him firmly in contention to win the Academy Award once again.

That could favor Adrien Brody more ifThe Brutalistbecomes a film that sweeps through the Oscars.

However, only 27 Best Actor winners have come from the film that also won Best Picture.

The real argument to be made in Brody’s favor comes from his overall dominance during the awards season.

He got a pivotal early win at the Golden Globes for Best Actor - Drama, beating out Chalamet.

That loss keeps Brody from being a definitive pick to win Best Actor at the Oscars.

Brody is undeniably one of the top two contenders to win Best Actor.

He’s just not my predicted winner.

He plays iconic musician Bob Dylan in the movie, directed by James Mangold.

That’s whywe’re predicting Chalamet to win Best Actor.

Losing the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and other precursors did little to help his standing.

However, Chalamet’s win at SAG Awards is a game changer.

It shows there is a lot of support for the young star among other actors.

And since the actor’s branch of the Academy is the largest, what they think really matters.

The Oscars and SAG have only disagreed on the Best Actor winner six times in last 30 years.

Notably, Adrien Brody is one of those examples, as he lost SAG but still won the Oscar.

Winning Best Actor at theOscars 2025would be monumental and break records.