While each holds a technical chance ofwinning the Oscars 2025 Best Picture category, they are not all realistic.
This is especially true for Best Picture.
That’s why I’ve compiled some stats and trends to try and help sort through a competitive race.
That’s whyConclave’s Best Picture candidacyimproved following its SAG victory.
15 of 29 movies that won at SAG went on to also win Best Picture overall.
So, whilethe math indicatesConclavehas a slight edge, that also means it’s not a lock.
Overall, they’ve matched 24 of 35 times.
That is whyAnorabecame the Best Picture frontrunnerto many after this win.
This includes four of the last five years.
But you’re free to’t do that if you’re siding withConclave.
There is certainly a world where the categories split if Corbet wins Best Director and Baker’sAnorawins Best Picture.
Similarly, any argument forA Complete Unknownwinning Best Picture would likely require a surprise Mangold win here.
Custom Image by Cooper Hood
However, it’s also worth noting that the matching has favored Original Screenplay more recently.
Five Best Picture winners in the last 10 years also won Original Screenplay versus only two receiving Adapted Screenplay.
Predicting either to win would likely mean believing they have a chance to joinParasite’s exclusive club.
This is really a mark againstEmilia PerezandI’m Still Here’s odds to win.
Neither film currently has enough support to believe that they can win both of these categories.
Denis Villeneuve’sDune 2is the 12th sequel nominated in the category.
There have only been10 musicals to win Best Picture.
It’s become increasingly uncommon over the years too.
AfterOliver!won in 1968, it took another 34 years beforeChicagowon it all.
It’s been another 22 years since then without a musical win in Best Picture.
The biopic genre includes all types of films, but the Academy is prone to reward them occasionally.
However,biopics haven’t won Best Picture in back-to-back years since 1984-1985.
It could do well on theOscars 2025preferential ballots but not enough to actually unseat a bigger contender.
Best Picture Suggestion: Be cautious about pickingA Complete Unknown
Final Verdict: PredictAnoraorConclaveto win Best Picture
